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How to Calculate the Beta of a Stock 1. Expected inflation can be derived from the market by referring to the yield curve rates on nominal and real US treasury securities. The implicit inflation forecast is calculated as follows. When calculating expected inflation, year maturities are preferred over or year bonds since the latter are less liquid, which means higher premiums.
Inflation-protected securities, however, suffer from illiquidity themselves. That means investors might demand higher returns to hold these bonds, thereby compressing the spread between the two securities. Yields can be found at the U.
Department of the Treasury website see screenshot below. This implied the market was forecasting annual inflation at 1. In other words, investors should not expect returns much lower or higher than that produced by companies in the real economy. Select the most recently published WEO database and follow the steps of the query until you have selected the country or countries of interest. Since we are interested in real GDP growth, refer to the variable Gross domestic product, constant prices: Percent change see screenshot below.
The output of the report gives a 5-year economic growth forecast in addition to an estimate for the current or most recent year.
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