Dazragore Trends Scenarios Policies Database. In the coming months and years EPIA will support the adaptation of support schemes to prices. Foor, renewable energy is no longer considered a curiosity. The total installed PV capacity in the world has multiplied by a factor of 27, from 1. PV has proven itself to be a reliable and safe energy source in all regions of the world. In the so-called Sunbelt countries, decreasing prices are bringing PV closer to grid parity and helping spread awareness of its potential.
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All forecast figures are based on EPIA knowledge at the time of publication. Please also note cumulative forecast figures for individual countries only have been rounded. Historical PV market development a. The EU market in and the forecast to a. Current situation in the EU b. Market segmentation in the EU c.
PV electricity production in the EU d. The leading renewable energy technology e. Scenarios by country f. EU forecasts for PV until g. Reaching targets h. Support schemes in the EU 3. World market in and evolution until a. Global situation b. Scenarios by country c. China and the EU: 2 faces of the same medal?
A temporary mismatching? Production capacity overview a. Overcapacity: the numbers b. Overcapacity: a real problem? In particular in the last year, the photovoltaic market has reached a cumulative installed capacity of roughly 40 GW world-wide, with an annual added capacity of The photovoltaic power is well on the way to becoming a fully competitive part of the electricity system in the European Union EU and an increasingly important part of the energy mix around the Globe.
But much of the progress in recent years has been very heterogeneous, varying from country to country, due to several factors, the most important being different national regulations and incentive schemes as well as varying availability of financing facilities. Thanks to its intimate contact with key players in the industry, national PV associations and its deep knowledge of PV policies and support schemes, EPIA market figures are a credible and authoritative source of short-term market forecasts as well as long-term scenarios.
With the massive growth of the PV market, data reliability is becoming a crucial issue: industry players, electric utilities and policy makers must count on reliable data to orientate their decisions, launch investments or plan updates on legislation. EPIA advocates the availability of quick, transparent and reliable market information and, therefore, encourages the adoption of effective monitoring systems.
A doubling of the market in The PV industry experienced significant growth in Capacity additions grew from 7. The total installed capacity in the world now amounts to around 40 GW, producing some 50 terawatt-hours TWh of electrical power every year. This major increase was linked to the rapid growth of the German and Italian markets.
With 7. Italy installed 2. Other countries also saw significant growth. The Czech Republic experienced a burst to 1. Japan and the USA almost reached the gigawatt mark with and megawatts MW respectively, installed last year. France reached over MW, while Spain regained some ground by installing MW after two years of strongly adverse conditions. Belgium connected more than MW of PV capacity to the grid in The most mature market today, Germany, where the lowest prices for PV systems can be observed, will continue to decrease its Feed-in Tariffs FiTs to follow the declining PV prices.
However, the official targets for PV in the National Renewable Action Plan in Germany leave room for additional installations, with an annual market of more than 3 GW over the next 10 years. This clearly pushed authorities into reacting with emergency measures that risked the development of PV in the country. The situation in may have been clarified by the time of publication, but the prospects for and beyond remain unclear and depend mainly on the policy decisions of these days.
In this context, PV is more than ever part of a global renewable solution. PV markets are stronger than ever, and PV now appears on the energy map of several countries as a real alternative to conventional electricity sources. In several countries, grid parity for residential systems will be reached in the coming years. In some specific cases, in countries or regions with very high electricity prices, PV could soon become competitive with net-metering only.
Adequate support policies that have been driving the markets so far, such as the FiTs, must continue and be adapted to the cost curve of PV. The PV industry also supports well-designed support schemes that simplify the authorization processes and moreover limit the cost for electricity consumers, while ensuring the development of the market and industry. A Paradigm Shift in progress The evolution of the PV market in recent years has been heavily linked to the confidence and vision of smart policy makers in supporting the development of the technology.
In only one year, the installed capacity in Europe almost doubled and, at the current pace, Europe could increase the proportion of its electricity generated from PV by one percent every two years. While this situation will appear at different points in time in every EU country, for now the market is still driven by incentives.
This means PV market deployment still depends on the political framework of each country. Although support mechanisms for renewables are encouraged by the European Commission, they are defined in national laws. The introduction, modification or phasing out of such schemes constitutes a significant element of our forecasts and scenarios as they have profound consequences on national PV markets and industries.
In March , EPIA completed an extensive data collection exercise among a highly representative sample of the PV industry, electric utilities, national associations and energy agencies. The Policy-Driven scenario: This scenario assumes the continuation or introduction of support mechanisms, namely FiTs, accompanied by a strong political will to consider PV as a major power source in the coming years.
This must be complemented by a removal of non-necessary administrative barriers and the streamlining of grid connection procedures.
Under these two scenarios, this report analyses, on a country-by-country basis: the historical development of the PV market; existing support policies, their attractiveness and expected developments; administrative procedures in place; national renewable energy objectives; and the potential for PV. Therefore, the cumulative installed capacity refers to installations that can make a real contribution to meeting the energy demand. This also reflects the regulatory point of view as FiTs are paid only to systems that are connected and produce electricity.
The difference between installations and systems connected to the grid can be quite significant in some cases. With many projects being installed in November and December due to expected FiT changes, choosing one methodology over the other can modify the year-to-year PV market figures considerably.
Consider the case of Belgium: from a connection point of view, almost MW of systems installed in were connected only in In our methodology, therefore, the market progressed from MW connected in to MW in From an installation point of view, however, the market decreased from MW to just MW, due to a sharp decrease in Flanders. Including off-grid installations Long before PV became a reliable source of power connected to the grid, it was largely used to provide electricity in remote areas that lay out of the reach of electricity grids.
For this reason, off-grid systems are also taken into account in the total installed capacity. In Australia and South Korea, dozens of megawatts of off-grid capacity are installed every year and are accordingly taken into account in the total installed capacity in those countries. Historical PV market development From the first PV applications in space to the GW systems planned today, more than 40 years have passed. Over the last decade, PV technology has acquired the potential to become a major source of power generation for the world.
That robust and continuous growth is expected to continue in the years ahead. One year later it was 23 GW. In , almost 40 GW are installed globally and produce some 50 TWh of electricity every year. Japan 3. China is expected to become a major player in the coming years, and the size of its domestic market so far is only a small indication of its potential.
After the growth seen in , despite difficult financial and economic circumstances, was expected to show a major acceleration. While Germany remains the leader, with Italy following, many other markets have started to show significant development. Since then, the EU has retained leadership without much challenge from other markets. While China could reach that threshold quickly, medium-sized markets will take several years to reach the same level of development.
This will possibly rebalance the PV market between the EU and the rest of the world to reflect more closely the patterns in electricity consumption. North America appears as the third region, with Canada developing steadily alongside the USA, a huge market with tremendous potential for growth.
PV also shows great potential in South America and Africa, where electricity demand will grow significantly in the coming years. The EU market in and the forecast to 3. France grew rapidly in , installing MW. After a disastrous , the Spanish market recovered partially, despite adverse conditions, to reach MW. The United Kingdom started to develop in , and while its potential for may be less than initially expected, it remains one of the most promising markets in the EU in the short term.
Other smaller countries appeared on the map or continued their growth, but their relative size Slovenia, Bulgaria or overly restrictive local regulations Austria, Portugal, Switzerland made them less important for the development of the PV market as a whole. Only Italy, with more than 2. The Czech Republic, however, puts the total PV installed capacity per habitant of the country at the same level than Germany W per habitant in Czech Republic and W per habitant in Germany at the end of In total Market segmentation in the EU Part of the wealth of the European PV market is due to its unique market segmentation: from small residential systems to large ground-mounted installations, PV technologies allow variants for all geographies.
In some cases, the lack of sustainable support mechanisms, combined with stop and go policies, has prevented balanced market segmentation and homogeneous geographical development. It takes time to build business confidence in PV technology and raise public awareness of its capabilities. As the German example has shown, small and mediumsized installations are driven by private customers for whom confidence in the technology is essential.
The examples of Spain and the Czech Republic, both dominated by large players and ground-mounted installations, provide contrast: the clear imbalance between segments has led to a lack of awareness among the population and policy makers.
In the EU, many countries are promoting one or the other market segment according to national specificities and legislation on the use of agricultural land. Small residential installations can be seen as a possible salvation in countries where the market has collapsed: Spain and the Czech Republic could experience a market rebirth, at least to a certain extent, in this globally untapped market.
The future of small installations therefore remains bright, with the BIPV segment progressing well in both Italy and France. One million PV installations world-wide.
In , PV installations reached the one million mark, thanks to small residential installations.
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